A change in the climate on climate change

Green is no longer the colour, at least in politics. That reality began to sink in late last year at the Copenhagen climate change summit, which turned into more of a media circus than a serious exercise in working out a new international treaty to curb carbon emissions. Other straws in the wind have also been showing up, all of which add up to the decline in public concern about this issue. One such straw arrived this week, in form of new survey of TV weathermen in the U.S. The study, done by the Centre for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, shows that only about a third of weather forecasters surveyed believe there is a scientific consensus that global warming is a reality. This, despite the fact that such a consensus has been in place for some time. Given the influence the forecasters, and other TV and radio types, have over public opinion, this finding says several things about the role of the media in shaping opinion on important issues. For example, it seems to suggest that it is time for advocates of action on emissions to go to an education strategy, instead of relying so much on confrontation and its close cousin, the politics of fear. People eventually get tired of being warned that the end of the world is near, even though that might be true. So, if the scientific and environmental communities are going to turn back the tide now running toward inaction on these issues, they are going to have to stop trying to frighten people and concentrate instead on making the case for government policy change by sharing information that ordinary people can understand. That, in turn, leads to step two, which would be to do what the energy industry has always done and focus on marketing its case through the media, in part by getting the media on side. That's where the weathermen come in. The scientific types may, and likely do, resent the influence the talking heads seem to have on this issue. But if they want to change the direction of public opinion, they are going too have to start informing, and persuading, these public spokesmen of the validity of the scientific evidence. In other words, they are going to have to get a coherent communications strategy to sell the case for action on climate change, to counter the impression many people have that there is no real climate problem and that the five-day forecast proves that is the case. The challenge to the scientists and environmentalists is large, in no small part because it will require them to start taking communication seriously, and stop assuming that mere expertise is enough to win the argument. It will also require them to get their act together, instead of speaking as individuals. It might even mean some of them will have to go on TV and look those weathermen, and their audience, in the eye. Can they do it? The jury is out.